My hope over the last week was that the protests in Burma, originally led by pro-democracy groups and monks, might just bring about change in one of the world’s most oppressive political regimes.

But my fear was that the situation would become another Tiananmen Square, with a large and promising civil uprising cut short by bloodshed. Sadly, events so far seem closer to this than anything else.

It’s just on nineteen years since the last major protests in Burma — the ones that made Aung San Suu Kyi famous — although this time, the outside world was more aware that people were pushing ideas whose time had come. But since then, curfews and army crackdowns have left Rangoon’s streets silent, and cut off the flow of information out of the country (with the national Internet link cut and troops confiscating cameras and phones).

The best remaining hope appears to lie in the subtle and less visible changes brought on in the army: reports of small cases of dissent, for instance, and unconfirmed reports of disagreement among generals. Getting change out of this clearly requires outside help, but I don’t see any easy answers on what to do. Even if Western nations would consider military action, I’m not convinced it’d work, given factors like the deep fear instilled in the populace. Sanctions clearly haven’t done much, which seems to leave thus-far ineffective diplomatic pressure as the only option …