I’ve noticed an unusual trend in the last few days while following stories about Timor-Leste (aka East Timor). All of the bloggers I can find who are on the ground are suggesting that things aren’t all that bad and they don’t feel particularly unsafe. Admittedly, Dili-gence mentions a lack of troops on the streets, and other posts suggest that for some people the threat is quite real … but Tumbleweed suggests things have improved to the point that a public peace march is possible.

Overall, this is a stark contrast to the fairly scary stories that are filling the local media. Maybe the Australian journos who have invaded Dili are trying so hard to find front-page-worthy stories that what they’re uncovering is every single case of violence, rather than indicative samples of a large number of attacks …?

Even the bloke in charge of Australia’s troops (who’s done a remarkably diplomatic job talking to the media) thinks things are getting better, to the point of embarassing the Today show thismorning.

I shall conclude with a smattering of other posts: the Australian troops are being given some odd new rules in the wake of recent scandal, the potential long-term consequences for Australian foreign policy might not be very palatable, and Needlenose makes an interesting (albeit hugely oversimplified) point.

It’s starting to be broadly reported that the government of Timor-Leste (or East Timor to our Anglicising media) has requested military and police assistance from Australia and New Zealand, the old colonial power Portugal, and interestingly, Malaysia.

About six years ago, as the original INTERFET military force started to wind up, I remember thinking with some optimism that there’d be a new beginning in Timor-Leste, one founded on peace and a real commitment to deal with the country’s insane level of poverty. The Timorese leadership certainly seemed willing to do what was needed for a sustainable future.

Fast-forward to today, and the current civil unrest strikes me as a sign of a horribly fractured and unstable government, not one that is working with the people to build a nation. Listening to Jose Ramos-Horta on the 7.30 Report, there are promising signs that the rebels involved are willing to seek a peaceful political settlement, so things mightn’t be as bad as they seem to be. But if that’s the case, why call for so many police (and troops!) from four countries?

I fear that Timor-Leste will suffer the same fate as so many of the countries to our immediate north — government that is too weak and mired in its own petty issues to deal with the real social problems faced by the country. I hope very much that I’m wrong in this assessment …