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	<title>The Pencil Guy &#187; hezbollah</title>
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		<title>Will it degenerate into war?</title>
		<link>http://hourann.com/blog/2006/07/18/will-it-degenerate-into-war</link>
		<comments>http://hourann.com/blog/2006/07/18/will-it-degenerate-into-war#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Jul 2006 15:39:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>azza-bazoo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gaza strip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hezbollah]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lebanon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[middle east]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Truth be told, I actually don&#8217;t know what to say about the current conflict(s) in the Middle East. Israel&#8217;s sudden military campaign against Hezbollah strikes me as slightly insane, the perfect way to stoke a war in a region that isn&#8217;t exactly the most stable in the world. But I also recognise Israel&#8217;s right to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Truth be told, I actually don&#8217;t know what to say about the current conflict(s) in the Middle East. Israel&#8217;s sudden military campaign against Hezbollah strikes me as <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5192036.stm">slightly insane</a>, the perfect way to stoke a war in a region that isn&#8217;t exactly the most stable in the world.</p>
<p>But I also recognise Israel&#8217;s right to protect itself from terrorists; the initial Hezbollah attack <em>was</em> pretty brazen (albeit poorly reported here). The response seems <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3277959,00.html">popular within Israel</a>, probably because it makes the government appear strong &#8212; and given that, I can understand why Aussies in Lebanon are crying to our government for help as if it&#8217;s a superpower that can deploy navy ships to the region within two days. (Speaking of the Aussie government, little John&#8217;s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1689961.htm">visit to Timor-Leste</a> today seems to have been little more than a meet-and-greet; I wonder if they talked about Timor Sea gas deals?)</p>
<p>The Israeli attacks also came as a shock to me because I&#8217;ve been busy writing (rather theoretically) about how the risk of traditional war between equally-matched states is lessened in the contemporary world because states are more interdependent than they used to be &#8230; and while that&#8217;s still true for Southeast Asia, I guess the Mid-East is always a bit exceptional.</p>
<p>At least I can say this with certainty: the Israeli campaign is doing a great job of drawing attention away from the <a href="http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=35068">Gaza Strip</a>. And Iraq, for that matter &#8230;</p>
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