The Pencil Guy: Hourann's illogical blog

China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Pakistan

Sunday 30 December 2007 at 11:51 pm
  • News this weekend out of Beijing (and not just about the Olympics)! On the one hand, airy statements about how the Communist Party might one day deliver on the promise to bring full democracy to Hong Kong left the pro-democracy movement there feeling rightfully annoyed. 2017 is what John Howard would call a non-core promise …
  • On the other hand, the Japanese PM held meetings with the Chinese leadership that have been much more productive than anything either of the last two Japanese leaders achieved. But that’s not saying much.
  • In Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto’s assassination has brought forth the aspirations of her son (who’s only 19!). I only hope that fresh leadership and public anger at the fundamentalists will put their party on a strong footing, rather than prompting more violence in an already-fragile part of the world.
  • Locally, I’m disappointed that the WA Turf Club and the Swan River Trust couldn’t sort out their bureacratic disagreement so as to let the former’s (awesome) redevelopment go ahead — if either side had any creativity, surely the plan could have been tweaked to minimise its environmental impact.
  • And finally, it’s pretty impressive that Wild Oats XI took line honours yet again, though I’m surprised by Rosebud taking the overall gong.
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EAS, round 2: energy deals grab broader attention

Saturday 20 January 2007 at 10:47 am

(Admittedly, this post is several days late; I blame family.)

Leaders at the second East Asia Summit, Cebu, Philippines. Creative Commons licence does not apply to this image.

So the East Asia Summit for 2006 (er, 2007? 06-07? or something?) has drawn to a close, and although the institution is still new and finding its feet, this year has presented a few good signs that the Summit will have a successful future in encouraging regional cooperation.

Aside from several measures to promote regional trade, the big announcement was a declaration that promises cooperation on “energy security”, which is to say there’ll be a big push for investment in transmission and generation infrastructure. Assuming the declaration is followed through, there’ll also be a few token measures towards bio-fuels and renewable energy (though admittedly that’s better than nothing).

I think it’s illustrative that our local daily gave a big chunk of space on the business pages to an AP story about the energy pact, which seems to mirror several other news services I’ve checked. In other words, talk of energy deals makes business leaders (or at least business press editors) stand up and take notice — which, if nothing else, has the benefit of giving the Summit some more widespread attention than it’d otherwise earn. On that front, the EAS has already done better than APEC meetings of recent years, none of which have produced anything quite as noteworthy.

Within that context, the Japanese government has already stepped forward with a donation of US$2b for energy research, yet another component in its long-term programme of being the region’s aid financier. Similarly, the AusAID announcement earlier in the week of $5m to combat bird flu was soundly trounced by a Japanese pledge of an additional US$67m. These donations are important in the sense that they’re giving substance to the decisions being made at the EAS — which suggests that to some extent, the EAS is already getting things done. (On the other hand, though, Japan was donating money for disease prevention long before 2005.)

Speaking of Japan, simmering resentment between it and China earned barely a mention in most media coverage of the second Summit — unlike last time — and this is pretty much entirely due to Shinzo Abe taking over from Junichiro Koizumi as PM. Abe has made little in the way of significant changes to Japan’s dealings with China, but simply by not visiting the Yasukuni Shrine (as PM) he has defused tensions enough that an entire section of my thesis is rendered obsolete. But that’s a good thing, because I argued that a rift between the region’s largest economies was the single biggest issue in the way of a successful EAS.

Interestingly, Russia wasn’t at the table this time around, even though its presence would have actually been relevant on the question of oil supply (so I suppose that ends the speculation from 2005 about whether it’d become a fully-fledged member!).

The broader ASEAN Summit (of which the EAS was one part) earned headlines for a declaration about terrorism and progress towards an ASEAN Charter, but otherwise there was little reaction to the events of the last 12 months. It is the ASEAN Way to not criticise any country’s domestic affairs in public, so there was nary a whimper about the fact that Thailand was represented by a military general. North Korea and Myanmar were both told off, the former about the 6-party talks and the latter for lacking democracy, but these announcements have become yearly stalwarts. Beyond that, the only announcement that struck me as interesting was the plan for new university courses as part of the cultural component of the forthcoming ASEAN Community.

As a final note, the most prominent mention that the Summit got in Australia was John Howard’s stopover in Broome on the way back. Frankly, were I in his shoes, I’d probably do the same — although I’d have covered my back for the inevitable “who paid for this?” squabbles ;-)

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My Monday checklist

Monday 2 October 2006 at 12:18 pm
  • Four thousand word essay written in two days: check.
    (Actually I should be more precise: four thousand words of dribbly and incoherent stream-of-consciousness ranting, check.)
  • Impressive Eagles win that I had to miss on account of said essay: check.
  • Remaining alive despite having had about 30% of my RDSI (recommended daily sleep intake), due to several factors including said essay: check.
  • Change of leadership in Japan that was supposed to confirm one of the points of my thesis, but has actually invalidated it: check.
  • Leaving previous employer on account of being generally overworked: check.
  • Confusing, horribly eventful, and altogether up-and-down birthday last week — from being surprised by Awesome Helen with cake, to being stressed over not completing stuff on my last afternoon at work, to catching up with other awesome people at lunch, to being forced out of the Social Sciences building by a fire alarm at 8.30 pm, to forgetting to do a bunch of crucial tasks, to ROFLing at Adam’s take on Monty Python: check.

Now with all that out of the way, I feel like I might actually get something done now!

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